On paper, a one-year transport contract looks like a guarantee of peace of mind. The rate is set for twelve months, carriers selected in a tender. However, fuel prices and the availability of rolling stock do not change in the rhythm of tenders. How much such stability is really worth was discussed during FutureLog 2026. The TSL industry conference took place on September 30 and October 1 in Warsaw, and was organized by Eurologistics Media Group and BVL Chapter Poland. The Transport Group was represented by Proxy Natalia Grzybowska, Commercial Director Magdalena Lipska and Branch Director Klaudia Radziszewska. Natalia Grzybowska took part in the debate "The Illusion of Stability".
Contract, spot and volatility cost
The debate concerned annual tenders and the relationship between contract rates and the spot market. In the background, there was the question of who pays for market volatility when the conditions from the day of signing the contract no longer correspond to reality. The conversation was moderated by Tomasz Łyszega from CargoON. Representatives of shippers and logistics companies sat at the table: Karolina Janik from IFB International Freightbridge (Poland), Jarosław Łosek from Knauf, Dariusz Krasoń from Carlsberg and Natalia Grzybowska from Grupa Transportowa. Such a composition made it possible to juxtapose two perspectives that usually meet only during negotiations.What was said at the table
Karolina Janik admitted that it is difficult to talk about stability today, especially when looking at fuel prices. IFB responds to these turbulences by using various modes of transport. Jarosław Łosek drew attention to carriers. Knauf cooperates with transport companies of various sizes and it is clear that the current situation is felt most strongly by the smallest ones. According to him, they are reliable partners who need to be taken care of. Dariusz Krasoń spoke about the tender itself. Price cannot be the only criterion for choosing a carrier, and the purchasing department should also be involved in the decision-making process.
A commitment is not yet a guarantee
Natalia Grzybowska spoke from the perspective of a company that stands between the shipper and the carrier. In her opinion, contractual provisions are an obligation, but they do not provide a guarantee. The cooperation model must be approached flexibly. The position in the middle makes the tension visible from both sides at the same time. The customer expects the tender rate. The carrier looks at the costs that have increased since the day the contract was signed. Rigid adherence to the provisions does not protect anyone in such a situation. A carrier that has been driving below costs for several months eventually stops accepting orders or looks for savings where the customer would least like it. Flexibility does not mean freedom. The point is to set the rules in the event of a change in terms and conditions in advance, before a problem arises. Various tools are used on the market for this: from fuel clauses to periodic reviews of rates. However, the most important thing is whether the parties are able to talk openly about the change before it turns into a dispute.An illusion that someone pays for
The relationship between the contract and the spot works both ways. When market rates fall below the contract rates, there is pressure to renegotiate or shift part of the volume to spot. When they rise, carriers begin to reject orders, and the shipper buys transport on an ad hoc basis, more expensively, and under time pressure. In both cases, stability turns out to be contractual. The cost of volatility goes to someone anyway: to the carrier's margin or to the budget of the shipper, who is looking for emergency capacity on the spot. That is why the vote on tenders, in which price is not the only criterion, is of practical importance. The cheapest offer is often the one in which there is no buffer for a worse quarter. When both logistics and purchasing are involved in the selection, it is easier to assess things that are not visible in the rate itself: punctuality, availability of rolling stock at peak times, the way of communicating in case of problems and the financial condition of the carrier. The same is true of smaller carriers. They have the smallest margin of safety, so they are the first to feel market fluctuations. If they fall out of it, the shipper loses some of the available transport capacity. Taking care of them is therefore a matter of the shipper's resilience of their own supply chain.